Market-Moving Trends to Watch in H2 2024

As businesses, supply chains, and consumer behavior prepare for the unpredictable months ahead, it’s nearly impossible to manually identify the most pressing topics executive leaders should concern themselves with. Ultimately, C-suite leaders need to understand where the market is headed and be able to proactively get ahead of market events in order to stay competitive. 

Take generative AI (genAI): it’s revolutionizing industries by changing the way business is conducted in the most fundamental ways. Our 2023 State of Generative AI & Market Intelligence report found that 65% of professionals currently use AI in their research, and a whopping 80% expect to increase their reliance on this tech in the next 12 months.

If 2024 taught us anything, it’s that opportunities are often short-lived, as volatility, unpredictability, and technological transformation have added higher stakes to every decision. 

Ultimately, companies need a way to stay smart, agile, and continuously informed about their industries and the business world at large. Using AlphaSense, we’ve combed through thousands of corporate earnings call transcripts, interviews from our expert call library, research documents, and more (all found within our vast content universe) to identify the top 10 key market-moving trends to keep an eye on for 2024 H2:

Market-Moving Trends to Watch in H2 2024

Red Sea Crisis

“Suez Canal” 

“Red Sea”

The Yemeni militia attacks in the Red Sea area have forced companies reliant on the shortest Asia-EU route to seek alternative shipping options, leading to costly detours around Africa and spikes in spot rates. The disruption is compounded by drought-related restrictions at the Panama Canal, another shipping choke point. 

“How it might end? It’s a political solution to it. As of now, the shipping companies have tried but I don’t see any shipping company able to bend the political needle in their favor. It’s almost 260 days since the Red Sea crisis broke out. It looks like the companies are on their own. There is not necessarily a lack of political intent to solve this in favor of the companies.”

– Former VP | July 2024, Expert Transcript Call

“Spot rates have definitely gone up and the shipping companies are playing games on all this again. Of course, there are some macro–some big factors with the Suez Canal, et cetera. We’re looking very hard at a surcharge.”

– Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. | Q2 2024 Earnings Call

Chinese Imports

“Tensions”

“Tariffs”

There’s been a persistent increase of transcripts mentioning “tensions” in regards to global protectionist and similar policies taking hold. As tensions between the Western world and China escalate due to tech rivalry and spying allegations, we have also noticed mentions of “tariffs,” as well as increased volatility in the stock prices of companies with exposure to Chinese exports. 

“Geopolitics are an important factor in terms of where you’re sourcing your products from. Many consumer goods were being made in Asia and China used, which was a pretty big factor. But since 2018 and ’19, when last Trump was the President of the U.S. with all these tariff talks, there has been a lot of transition from China to many other regions.

– Scancom Plc | March 2024, Shareholder/Analyst Call

“You would think that maybe Western foundries and IDMs might not be comfortable having Chinese tools for very critical parts of the manufacturing process because if the tensions increase, potentially, China could disable those tools and really render the fabs incapable of producing those chiplets.”

– Industry Expert | June 2024, Expert Call

CHIPS Act

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, semiconductor stockpiles have been dangerously low for international manufacturers, causing massive delays in supply chain production. To lift pressure off of Taiwan and stabilize manufacturing demands, Congress introduced the CHIPS (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) and Science Act of 2022.

“There are many new fabs that are being built, and not all of them are necessarily associated with the CHIPS Act money. When it comes to 2025, more than half of the shipments will [come from these fabs], but that will include new fabs being constructed in Taiwan. So more than 50% of our shipments for 2025, we expect to go to new fabs.”

– ASML Holding N.V. | Q2 2024 Earnings Call

“In particular, the Inflation Reduction Act has just resulted in a pretty substantial build-out of EV manufacturing, battery storage manufacturing. The CHIPS Act has done the same on the semiconductor manufacturing end. Policies have been around for quite some time, but the recent acceleration, I believe, is because of IRA, IIJA, CHIPS Act, and then just industrial policy being something that’s heavily discussed in the political spectrum.”

– Industry Expert | June 2024 Expert Call

Obesity Drugs

Weekly U.S. prescriptions of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy obesity treatment increased 450% YoY during 2Q23 and are dwarfing weekly prescriptions posted by the company’s previous generation Saxenda obesity drug. Suffice it to say, the market opportunity for obesity drugs is substantial—Morgan Stanley projected the global obesity market to reach $77 billion in 2030. 

“The primary market for using obesity drugs is going to be long-term treatment. It’s going to be maintenance. And [there will be] an intense focus on how much weight do you have over a year to how much weight loss do you manage and maintain over the course of several years? And do you maintain it safely without the side effects of that weight loss?”

– Altimmune, Inc. | May 2024, Conference Transcript

“The other opportunity, is if the government, in earnest, starts paying for obesity drugs. Historically, they have not paid for weight loss drugs. It has been a self-pay. The GLP-1s is a little bit of an exception. I think that the government has started to pay for some specific indications.”

– Former VP, AMGN | July 2024, Expert Call

Reshoring

With so much geopolitical unrest at play in today’s economy, establishing stable supply chains starts with reshoring. This is a strategy that brings production and manufacturing “back home,” i.e. returning it to the country in which the company was first established. According to Deloitte, American manufacturers will reshore nearly 350,000 jobs in 2022—a 25% increase compared to the previous year.

“The manufactured product sector continues to develop as we see ongoing reshoring and measuring, particularly in the US.”

– Renold Plc | July 2024, Earnings Call

“A lot of these [reshoring] trends have been occurring over the last decade or so, but as the U.S. has just prioritized industrial policy and trying to bring back onshore businesses, industries, and sectors that were offshored in the ’90s, whether that is automobile, steel, semiconductor manufacturing, what have you, I think those trends are only going to continue.”

– Industry Expert | June 2024, Expert Call

Russia-Ukraine War

“Ukraine”

While Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago, Putin continues to wage a destructive war (United Nations estimates that 90% of Ukraine could “freefall into poverty” due to the ongoing conflict). Initial support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his efforts to protect the country was ample—with the US sending $107 billion in aid. However, with an upcoming election, where presidential candidate Donald Trump has voiced a pro-Putin stance, and new warfare has sprouted between Israel and Gaza, financial backing for Ukraine may waver. Both Russia and Ukraine are major producers and exporters of essential commodities.

“As we mentioned, we were down in Germany because we had lost a significant customer, but also our European joint ventures overall are feeling a bit of economic pressure based on the ongoing war with Ukraine and the externality that’s causing, for example, higher energy prices in Europe.”

– Northern Technologies International Corp. | Q3 2024 Expert Call

“One of the things that’s really rocked the industry outside of COVID was the Ukraine and Russia conflict that has had an impact on the titanium marketplace. The world’s largest melter of titanium actually was a company based in Russia which is the one exception to my comment about them wanting to deal with U.S.-based companies.”

– Former Sr. Director, ATI | June 2024, Expert Call

Green Energy 

As societal concerns about climate change climb and new global crises destabilize supply chains, private equity firms are funneling capital into potential energy solutions. Geopolitical events have only reminded nations around the world that some sources of fossil fuel are unreliable and that renewable energy initiatives are becoming business-as-usual. 

“There has been a notable shift towards green energy as evidenced by the implementation of comprehensive regulatory frameworks in the EU and the U.S.A. However, there are still areas such as green hydrogen and CCS, which require further agreement and development in terms of regulatory guidelines to facilitate their growth and integration into the energy sector.”

– OMV Aktiengesellschaft | June 2024, Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

“If Biden stays in office, he’s been historically generous to green energy but mainly surrounding EV. My educated prediction is that in terms of taxes, it may be better if Biden was not reelected, but I do know for a fact that if he is reelected, money for the green energy industry will continue to flow.”

– Industry Expert | July 2024, Expert Call

Generative AI

Today, generative artificial intelligence (genAI) has integrated into nearly every industry, ranging from healthcare to banking, retail, and even manufacturing. The fast adoption of genAI across sectors is due in part to its applications, which now span core functions in marketing and sales, product development, engineering, supply chain and operations, and support departments like IT, legal, talent acquisition and HR, strategy, and finance.

“More importantly, we believe the opportunity around generative AI for our business is expansive and it’s going to materially impact all parts of our organization.”

– Elevance Health, Inc. | Q2 2024 Earnings Call

“Generative AI is the leading edge right now. If you’re not partnering with somebody, building your own, doing something about security, doing something about being able to deploy it on a business side, then I don’t think you’re up to date.”

– Former Competitor, HPE | July 2024, Expert Call

Staying Ahead in 2024 and Beyond

With today’s volatile markets, research professionals need to prepare for the constantly shifting and evolving nature of conducting business today. Having access to a financial research platform that allows you to monitor and analyze trends ensures you make better-informed decisions and gain a competitive edge in your industry.

For even more on each trend, don’t miss our downloadable report, Market-Moving Trends to Watch in H2 2024.

For economic uncertainty, market volatility, and beyond, AlphaSense is a critical information source for corporate, financial, and consulting professionals who want to stay ahead. Start your free trial today.