Geopolitical events reminiscent of Taleb’s The Black Swan are often unforeseen and fast-moving, making it crucial that IROs remain prepared and communicative.
Following the pandemic, investors have become more informed than ever before, consistently looking for information on global events that could inform a competitive edge or actively manage risk. Consequently, the C-suite will have to follow suit—not only by staying abreast of events, but also keeping a finger on the pulse of investor mentality.
But some executive leadership is already aware of this shift. AlphaSense’s collection of quarterly earning calls show a rise in transcripts containing terms related to these events between January 1, 2018 to March 31, 2024.
Top Terms Showing Up in Earnings Calls
“Suez Canal”
“Red Sea”
The Yemeni militia attacks in the Red Sea area have forced companies reliant on the shortest Asia-EU route to seek alternative shipping options, leading to costly detours around Africa and spikes in spot rates. The disruption is compounded by drought-related restrictions at the Panama Canal, another shipping choke point.
“We have been working very closely to monitor all the effects connected to the Red Sea situation, including what this will mean for freight prices for the year. And we’ve been in a very close dialogue with our shipping partners to try to mitigate these effects as much as possible.”
– H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB | Earnings Call, Mar 27, 2024
“The Red Sea crisis actually pushed many shipping lines to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and skip the Suez Canal transit.”
– CK Hutchison Holdings Limited | 2023 Earnings Call, Mar 21, 2024
“Israel”
Mentions of ‘Israel’ within conference call transcripts spiked in Q4 2023, following the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7 and subsequent military intervention. Both locally headquartered and foreign businesses have responded to these series of events:
“As the war continued, Bank of Israel extended its instruction and limited the distribution for another quarter, the fourth one, although we are clearly able to pay out dividends in line with our policy and even more. Obviously, our view is that the remaining capital surplus should be distributed to our shareholders, and we are working on that with the Bank of Israel.”
– Bank Hapoalim B.M. | Earnings Call, Mar 07, 2024
“Ukraine”
Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine and succeeding military strikes, sanctions, and divestitures left both countries unable to fulfill importee orders. This led to a shortage of essential commodities, as well as supply chain disruptions and realignments.
“With the prolonged U.S.-China trade friction, the war in Ukraine and the worsening situation in the Middle East, the global geopolitical risks are increasing. With this, the supply chain has become even more separated, which is beginning to have a significant impact on the group’s business opportunities.”
– Renesas Electronics Corporation | Shareholder/Analyst Call, Mar 26, 2024
Looking Back to Look Forward
As tension lingers between the Western world and China, we revisited transcript trends during Donald Trump’s presidency and noticed a sharp increase in the mention of ‘tariffs’, as well as ‘increased volatility’ in the stock prices of companies exposed to Chinese exports.
“Tariff”/”Tariffs”
“On the tariff question, Olivier, I think we would not be surprised to know that we’re, obviously, looking at that situation closely and we’re assessing how best if this was to come to pass that we could manage that situation…We are clearly monitoring the situation, and we would hope against hope that, that does not come to pass and that’s not a path that is adopted…”
– Pernod Ricard SA | Special Call, Mar 28, 2024
Tensions
From a larger lens, we’ve noticed an increase in transcripts mentioning ‘tensions’ as global protectionism policies take hold.
This is mirrored by an increase in calls mentioning ‘nearshoring’ and ‘reshoring’.
“We have already set up a fabulous world-class center in Vietnam for manufacturing and in Mexico. And we also have a number of factories we are reshoring into the U.S. as well. So we’re positioned beautifully no matter what happens. If nothing changes or everything changes, we will still continue to outperform the market. There’s no question.”
– Techtronic Industries Company Limited | Special Call, Mar 07, 2024
More specifically, we’ve seen an increase in transcripts mentioning the ‘CHIPS Act’, as both the US and EU rolled out major industrial policies in regardings to semiconductor manufacturing.
“And really, what’s happening here is really a new renaissance in manufacturing that has a multiyear tailwind of growth for the industry. Driven by the CHIPS and IRA Act, we’re going to see manufacturing explode in the US… And when you look at that, that’s going to be multi-years of growth…”
– Summit Materials, Inc. | Analyst/Investor Day, Mar 13, 2024
Defy Doubt with AlphaSense
The bottom line: geopolitical tension and international warfare are rife, rendering the market unpredictable and investors anxious. To truly succeed today, IROs need a market intelligence tool that eliminates the ambiguity brought on by the unexpected so as to pacify both investors and C-Suite leadership.
In AlphaSense, you can use the keyword search bar to search for topics or themes from across AlphaSense’s millions of data points.
- To conduct a thematic search that is not tied to a specific company or list of companies, enter a keyword or theme in the keyword search bar, and leave the company/ticker bar empty.
- Click the blue search button to begin your search.
Once you enter a keyword search, AI-powered suggested filters will automatically recommend the most relevant sources based on your keyword. You can select one or multiple filters to narrow down your search. You can easily search key terms within the platform (like the above terms) and see relevant companies, industries and regions trending in relation to that theme.
Unsure of where to start? The Trending Topics module, available via the dashboard, allows you to see the top 100 topics that are trending for a single company or a group of companies in a watchlist or industry. This is a great starting point to discover trends impacting your competitor set or industry before you drill down into research.
Are you looking to stay abreast of worldwide events and their ensuing impacts on organizations and wider industries? Download IR’s Magazine Playbook, A Geopolitics Playbook for IROs, to gain a comprehensive, proactive outlook.Beyond earnings calls, AlphaSense offers an extensive universe of company filings, expert interview transcripts, news, trade journals, and equity research—paired with proprietary AI-based search technology—to pinpoint the above insights and more in seconds.
Start your free trial with AlphaSense today.
