Emerging Markets Research by Nation
While emerging markets are collectively known to be economic growth drivers, specific opportunities and considerations vary by market and region. Let’s take a look at what the AlphaSense platform surfaces when we run a search for “emerging markets” and filter by specific countries.
Brazil
Brazil is continuously surpassing experts’ expectations. For the third consecutive year, the economy is growing faster than forecasted—and with favorable international conditions, receding inflation and interest rates, and a more constructive political environment, this upward trajectory is expected to continue.
A quick search on AlphaSense for emerging market analysis related to Brazil found in-depth domestic broker research from BTG Pactual and Itau as well as news commentary from sources like Euromoney, The International Business Times, The Economist, and TIME International.
China
China’s integral role in global consumption has made it a top region of interest for emerging market investors. China is so interwoven with the global supply chain that its growth potential impacts that of other countries on every continent.
At the same time, the Chinese market has been highly affected by market-moving events like COVID-19 lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the US-China trade war. In fact, the share of Chinese stocks in the benchmark emerging markets index MSCI has fallen 32% from 2020 to 2022, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
While 2023 started with high hopes when China announced its reopening, recovery has been slower than expected. Even still, the outlook remains positive, as renewed stimulus efforts and broadening recovery in jobs and consumption are expected to drive GDP growth. Overall, China is currently focusing on higher quality, consumption-driven growth, so private consumption is expected to play a large role in China’s economic recovery in 2023 and beyond.
A few additional resources you’ll find on China in the AlphaSense platform: China/Hong Kong Consumer Strategy 2023 Outlook from Morgan Stanley, Federal Reserve Bank research on China’s impact on the global economy, BBC watchlists, domestic perspectives from the Beijing Review, and industry and commodities reports from Haitong Securities and Guatai Junan.
India
Analysts will want to keep their eye on India as it continues to experience high growth and economic expansion amidst worldwide uncertainty elsewhere. An S&P chief economist recently rated it a “star” emerging market.
Capital spending investments are expected to pick up ahead of the general election in 2024, driving job growth and supporting domestic demand. Consumption is also expected to show steady growth in the next few quarters, as companies pass on the benefits of lower raw material prices to their consumers.
On the AlphaSense platform, notable research sources on India include a report from UBS on key themes and investment ideas in India for 2023 and content from the Reserve Bank of India, which includes minutes from the country’s Monetary Policy Committee meetings. Indian research providers like Motilal Oswal Securities and Anand Rathi Securities provide expert insight into their domestic economy, specific industries, and individual companies.
South Africa
Amidst challenges for other emerging markets in 2022, South Africa remained a healthy and attractive emerging market option for investors (Bloomberg recently named it a “top pick for choosy investors” and Reuters called it a “safe haven in emerging market maelstrom”). However, South Africa’s economic growth and equity market have taken a hit in 2023, as a result of commodity price deflation, political uncertainty, and power shortages.
Inflation has also had a profound impact on South African consumers with 55.5% of the population now classified as poor. On a positive note, tourism is expected to continue to rebound, and the region’s abundance of natural resources positions the market to benefit from a potential China stimulus.
Important South African perspectives you’ll find on AlphaSense come from news sources like Bizcommunity and Cape Business News. Research focused on this region is plentiful from The World Bank and Focus Economics.
Turkey
A young population, recent industrialization, and a heavy investment in infrastructure all point to Turkey’s potential to remain on a growth trajectory for the foreseeable future.
The recent reelection of President Erdogan did not quite result in a collapse of the Turkish financial market as some predicted, but the Turkish economy is certainly facing challenges. While the stock market has soared with foreign investors buying hundreds of millions worth of Turkish shares each week, the value of the lira has plummeted and inflation has risen—a pattern that is expected to continue for at least another year.
On the AlphaSense platform, look for Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence Reports (which typically cost $1500+ per report) on several individual Turkish industries—logistics and freight, security and defense, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, and oil and gas (among others).
Russia
Russia has long been considered an emerging market superpower, but its growth potential has been overshadowed recently by its conflict with Ukraine and resulting economic impacts.
This conflict has put Russia on the front page of just about every news outlet, so in the AlphaSense platform you can expect to find plentiful commentary from media sources around the world.
If you’re looking for the lesser-seen Russian perspective, look for news sources recapping commentary from top Russian news agency, TASS (here are two examples from Acquisdata and The Financial Post).
Malaysia
Malaysia boasts one of the wealthiest economies in Asia and a high-ranked GDP amongst other high-ranked ASEAN countries. Malaysia also has one of the world’s most open economies, with a trade-to-GDP ratio of over 130% since 2010. The country has some of the highest living standards in Southeast Asia and one of the lowest unemployment rates. Malaysia is positioned to become a high-income nation by 2024.
On the AlphaSense platform, look for domestic news perspectives on economic and sociopolitical happenings from Malaysia Economic News and Malay Mail. CIMB Research offers valuable Malaysian industry reports as well, including on telecom, banks, and agriculture.
Bonus: Overall Emerging Market Research Winners
In addition to nation- and region-specific insights, the AlphaSense platform offers access to global leaders in investment research. Institutional Investor recently ranked HSBC, JP Morgan, and BofA as the current emerging market leaders among the investment world’s brokerage giants.
